For Better or Wirtz: Why Liverpool’s £116m Gamble Will Be a Bargain

Liverpool’s £116.5 million signing of Florian Wirtz was one of the summer’s blockbuster moves. At just 22 years old, Wirtz arrived from Bayer Leverkusen with the reputation of being one of Europe’s most creative attacking midfielders. After 24 games across all domestic competitions this season for him, the raw totals look modest compared to his price tag, with just 1 goal and 4 assists. Critics have been quick to question whether Liverpool overspent, with outlets calling his performances 'concerning' and 'underwhelming'.

But transfers at this level are about long‑term value, not instant returns. When you break down his current numbers, compare them to other record signings, and factor in the age curve of attacking midfielders, Liverpool’s decision looks far more strategic. They aren’t paying for the 22‑year‑old Wirtz, they’re paying for the 26‑ to 28‑year‑old version, when he should be at his peak, with the hope that his peak arrives much earlier.

Let's take a look at Florian Wirtz's debut season so far, and maybe you'll start to doubt the doubters when you look through our lens.

Wirtz’s Current Stats

So far this season across all domestic competitions, Florian Wirtz has accumulated:

• Games: 24

• Minutes: 1,631

• Goals: 1

• Assists: 4

• Goal involvements per game: 0.21

• xG: 3.29 (0.14 per game)

• xA: 6.25 (0.26 per game)

• Key passes per game: 2.2

• Dribbles per game: 2.3 (54% success)

• Pass completion: 85%

Let's face it, his current stats are hardly setting the world on fire. Pretty much every statistic is down from last year, but it is well known that the playing styles differ drastically between the Bundesliga and the Premier League. And in fact, the totals show a gradual adaptation, and the per‑game averages highlight steady creative output. He’s progressing play, creating chances, and maintaining efficiency, even if the headline numbers aren’t yet explosive and reflecting last year's output. But let's take a look at where he stands against other notable signings and seasons over the last few years.

Benchmarking Against Other Big Signings

To put Wirtz’s numbers in context, here’s how he compares to other notable signings in their debut seasons.

We'll use a technique called feature engineering, which is effectively creating, transforming, or selecting input variables (features) from raw data to create a more insightful metric or attribute to be used in a machine learning model. A prime example of this is expected goals (xG). Today, we'll use it simply for comparative purposes, so we can see how Wirtz's current stats align to other debut seasons of notable signings over the last couple of seasons. The sample size is small and hand selected, but we are talking about the crème de la crème after all, and so there are only a few players in recent years who should be in the comparison.

We've created a composite index called the Value Metric (VM), which is a weighted formula which blends production per game with efficiency metrics, then normalises against the average output of other notable signings over the past few seasons. It’s essentially a weighted score where 1.0 = performing exactly at the level expected for the £100m+ fee, a score below 1.0 means they are performing below the level for the fee, and above 1.0 means they are exceeding expectations for the fee. However, it is key to note here that the VM assumes that the players fee was £100m+, making Cole Palmer's debut Chelsea season even more impressive!

The attributes used in the VM are goal involvements, expected goals, expected assists, key passes, dribbles, shot hit rate, pass completion, and dribble completion, all as per game metrics, as well as some chosen weightings based on attribute importance to us.

Player	Season	Cost (£m)	Games	Goals	Assists	Goal Inv/Game	Value Metric
Jude Bellingham	23/24	117.7	42	23	13	0.92	0.90
Declan Rice	23/24	105.0	51	7	9	0.34	0.78
Kai Havertz	23/24	65.0	51	14	7	0.41	0.65
Cole Palmer	23/24	42.5	48	27	15	0.87	1.15
Enzo Fernández	23/24	106.0	40	7	3	0.26	0.70
Florian Wirtz	25/26	116.5	24	1	4	0.21	0.52

It's clear to see that in their debut seasons, Jude Bellingham and Cole Palmer set distinct benchmarks on the VM scale. Bellingham’s explosive 23 goals and 13 assists in 42 games gave him a VM of 0.90, reflecting elite output and immediate justification of his £117.7m fee. Palmer, meanwhile, delivered 27 goals and 15 assists in 48 games, translating to a VM of 1.15, the highest among his peers, showing he drastically outperformed expectations relative to his £42.5m price tag. Unbelievable business from Chelsea, and clearly they knew something we didn't!

Now onto Florian Wirtz's season thus far. We won't beat around the bush, as expected from the raw statistics and the monstrous fee, Wirtz’s VM currently sits at 0.52, way below expectations given the previous season's output and price tag. But the VM is up from 0.42 just 3 games ago, a result of his recent goal and assists. That’s still well below elite peers, but it reflects progress, and importantly, it shows he’s trending upward as he adapts.

Why Did Liverpool Pay the Fee?

At Leverkusen last year, Wirtz delivered 16 goals and 14 assists in 45 games:

• Goals per game: 0.36

• Assists per game: 0.31

• Goal involvements per game: 0.67

• Value Metric: 1.05 (Had Leverkusen paid £100m+ for him)

  
  

That’s elite output, comparable to Bellingham and Palmer in their debut seasons. Liverpool’s investment wasn’t based on his first 24 games, it was based on the player who consistently produced at that level in Germany. They expect him to return to that standard once he fully adjusts to the Premier League. But can he get close to last year's VM if he has a little goal involvement run? Let's take a look.

Scenario Simulation

Football narratives can flip quickly. Now the lid is off following his goal against Wolves on Saturday, let's imagine Wirtz scores 3 more goals and adds 2 assists in his next 5 matches:

• His totals rise to 4 goals, 6 assists in 29 games.

• Goal involvements per game jump to 0.34.

• Minutes per involvement improve from 407 to around 230.

• His Value Metric surges to 0.85, putting him alongside Jude Bellingham and Cole Palmer.

That’s how thin the margins are. One hot streak can transform perceptions dramatically! And given his previous season, we know he has this kind of performance spike in his locker.

But most importantly, he is just 22 years old. Wirtz has a number of years before he is expected to reach his peak, and we'll delve into this well known pattern.

Positional Prime Age

The most important factor in this review of Wirtz's price tag is the positional performance curve. Research shows that attacking midfielders typically reach their peak between ages 24 and 30, with the sweet spot around 26–28. Unlike forwards, whose productivity often declines once pace and explosiveness fade, midfielders rely more on vision, passing, and tactical maturity, skills that improve with experience. This positional profile means their prime lasts longer, and their peak output is sustained well into their late twenties.

Recent work in the International Journal of Performance Analysis in Sport (2020) and follow‑up studies in the Journal of Functional Morphology and Kinesiology (2025) confirm that midfielders’ creative metrics (goals, assists, key passes, and possession influence) tend to rise steadily until the mid‑20s before plateauing. At 22, Wirtz is still in the developmental phase, and Liverpool’s £116.5m investment is about securing those prime years before he gets there. The science suggests his production will climb back to Leverkusen levels and likely exceed them as he matures.

Summary

The numbers tell a clear story:

• Last season: VM 1.05. A worldie season which put him in the conversation as one of the best players on the planet.

• This season: VM 0.52. The adjustment period. Welcome to the Premier League!

• Potential surge: VM 0.85. The breakout moment, and the beginning of the rise.

Liverpool didn’t buy the 22‑year‑old Wirtz, they bought the 26‑year‑old version who will be entering his peak. His current adaptation phase is part of the process, not the end result. Given his talents, don't be surprised when his performance begins to spike and he finds his flow state.

In the long run, Liverpool’s decision looks less like overspending and more like foresight. By the time Wirtz hits his prime, £116.5m may look like a bargain.

If you enjoyed this instalment of our blog series, give us a like, share, and follow!

And we're also looking to answer new sports questions, so comment on what you'd like us to break down next!

📲 Follow on @Statsmart_