Wem-VP? Using Data Analytics to Predict if Victor Wembanyama Will Become NBA MVP.

Victor Wembanyama (we’ll call him Wemby from here on out) is not just a unicorn, he’s a statistical anomaly even for the NBA. At 21 years old and 7'4", he’s blocking shots like prime Mutombo, scoring like an All-Star wing, and running the show like a veteran guard. He has been dubbed as the future face of the league and was given 'the Alien’ nickname because he really is something out of this world. But in a league where MVPs are crowned based on more than just dominance, we at Statsmart wanted to know: Will Wemby become NBA MVP in the next 3 years?

To find out, we built a regression-based process using five years of NBA MVP voting data and Wemby’s first two NBA seasons. Our goal was to identify which stats correlate most with MVP selection, and forecast whether Wemby will win the award in the next three years by extrapolating his statistics.

What Do MVPs Actually Look Like?

We begin by collecting full-season stat lines for the top 3 MVP vote-getters from 2021 to 2025. That gave us 15 profiles, that five MVPs and ten runners-up. We trained a logistic regression model to estimate the probability that a given stat line would result in an MVP win.

Stat lines consisted of standard per game statistics, such as points, rebounds, assists, turnovers, etc. We also factored in games played, minutes per game, and their team results over the year.

Rather than training the model only on MVPs, we included all top-3 candidates. This gave us a more realistic probability space and allowed us to compute a benchmark: the average MVP probability for actual winners.

The results showed that the average MVP probability of winning is 73% over the past 5 years based on their season statistics, and so we set this as our benchmark to whether an individual is considered MVP-worthy given their stat line.

Which Stats Matter Most?

Following on from our last blog, we used a correlation heatmap and ranked every stat by its relationship to MVP selection. Here’s what stood out:

Strongest Correlations	Weakest Correlations
Points per Game (PTS)	Triple-Doubles (TD3)
Assists (AST)	Steals (STL)
Field Goal % (FG%)	Personal Fouls (PF)
Team Wins (WINS)	Blocks (BLK)

Scoring, playmaking, and efficiency dominate, as expected. But more interestingly, defensive stats like blocks and steals (where Wemby excels) have a surprisingly weak correlation. That’s not to say they don’t matter, but they don’t move MVP voters the same way scoring and team success do. So, it’s a big thumbs up for him to be in the running for NBA Defensive Player of the Year in 2026, but it isn’t moving the needle in his MVP conversation.

Forecasting Wemby’s MVP Trajectory

Using linear regression on Wemby’s stat lines over the last 2 seasons, we extrapolated Wembanyama’s stat growth from 2024 and 2025 to predict his numbers for 2026–2028. We then fed those projections into the MVP probability model we created using the last five years of NBA MVP voting.

Here’s what the model says:

Season	PTS	REB	AST	BLK	FG%	WINS	MVP Prob	MVP?
2026	26.9	11.4	3.9	3.9	48.7	32	0.52	Nope
2027	29.5	11.8	4.1	4.0	50.1	38	0.66	Still No
2028	32.1	12.2	4.3	4.1	51.5	44	0.78	MVP!

Wemby crosses the MVP benchmark in 2028, with a probability of 78%, higher than the average for actual MVPs.

What This Means

Based on our extrapolation, Wemby is on track to win MVP in his fifth season. But he won’t get there on blocks and rebounds alone. He’ll need:

• 30+ PPG scoring

• Top-4 seed level wins

• Efficient shooting and playmaking

  
  

The model shows that if his scoring and team success continue to rise, he’ll be the clear frontrunner by 2028. Although we're sure that Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Nikola Jokic, and Luka Doncic might have something to say about that when the time comes.

Now, it’s key to note that while our model captures the statistical patterns that have historically aligned with MVP selection, it doesn’t account for the many unpredictable variables that shape a player’s season. Someone else having an even better year, injuries, roster changes, coaching shifts, media narratives, and even voter fatigue can all influence MVP outcomes in ways that numbers alone can’t fully capture (so in other words, don’t put money on it!)

What Doesn’t Matter (As Much)

Some stats that fans and analysts love, like triple-doubles, steals, and blocks, don’t typically correlate strongly with MVP selection. That doesn’t mean they’re irrelevant, but they’re not decisive (although Westbrook’s 2017 MVP campaign immediately springs to mind).

In fact, Wemby’s elite rim protection only nudges his MVP probability slightly. It’s his scoring and team wins that push him over the line.

Final Takeaway

If you're building an MVP case, or scouting for one, the data is clear: focus on the metrics that consistently move voters and separate contenders from champions. Across five seasons of MVP voting, four pillars emerged as the most predictive:

1. Scoring volume: MVPs average 28–33 points per game. It’s the headline stat that drives narrative and impact. If you want the trophy, bring the buckets.

   
   

2. Playmaking: High assist numbers signal offensive control and team facilitation, especially for bigs and wings. Sharing is caring after all.

   
   

3. Efficiency: Shooting percentages (FG%, FT%, 3P%) matter more than volume alone. MVPs don’t just score, they score smart.

   
   

4. Team wins: No MVP has come from a sub-.500 team in over 40 years. Winning is non-negotiable.

Victor Wembanyama is already elite in playmaking and efficiency for his position. If the Spurs can climb into playoff contention and he pushes his scoring closer to 30 PPG, our model shows he’ll surpass the MVP probability threshold by 2028.

In short: the MVP is within reach. But it’s not just about being dominant, it’s about being dominant in the right ways. At Statsmart, we’ll be tracking every step of the journey.

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